Sino-Canada Summit during G20 | 中加峰會

Two typical bases for cooperation between political entities: 1) concurrence of both values and interests, e.g. US-Israel relationship; and 2) common interests, e.g. US-Saudi Arabia relationship. The former is usually more solid than the latter.

政治實體之間的合作通常建立在兩種基礎上。一是價值觀和利益的雙重契合，如美國和以色列的關係。二是利益的契合，例如美國和沙特阿拉伯的關係。第一種合作關係通常比第二種穩固。

Historically, Peking enjoyed the former relationship with Moscow in the 1950s, and with Maoist revolutionary groups in the 1960s. Today, Peking attempts to cultivate the same relationship with South Korea and some Southeast Asian and Central Asian states, modelled on the old imperial Chinese tributary system.

北京在20世紀50年代，對蘇聯存在第一種關係；在20世紀60年代，對東南亞和全世界的毛派革命組織存在第一種關係；今天正企圖根據明清朝貢貿易的模式，把韓國和某些東南亞和中亞國家培養成第一種關係。

Since Peking’s alliance of common values is premised on challenging the prevailing international order, it can only be maintained by draining resources under realist diplomacy. However, stellar economic growth — the main bargaining chip for Peking’s realist diplomacy — is unsustainable. And Canada, unlikely to ally itself with China’s values, can only pursue cooperation based on common interests.

由於北京的價值觀同盟總是建立在挑戰國際主流的基礎上，實際上只能依靠消耗現實主義外交的資源來維持。今天的問題在於，北京推行現實主義外交的主要籌碼經濟已經無以為繼。加拿大不可能跟中國建立價值觀同盟，只能發展利益合作。

However, China’s economic slowdown diminishes its appetite for Canada’s natural resources: China still envies Canada’s technologies, but it increasingly lacks bargaining chips for negotiation. This reduces room for realist diplomacy. The summit can conclude certain deals, although both parties will find areas of cooperation much smaller than earlier this year, let alone those years prior to 2012.

然而中國經濟衰退，對加拿大原材料和需求自然減少。中國仍然有求於加拿大的技術，但越來越缺乏可以交換技術的籌碼。在這種情況下，現實主義外交的回旋餘地逐漸縮小。峰會可以達成個別交易，但各方都會發現合作空間已經遠不如今年年初，更不用說2012年以前。

When resources under realist diplomacy are exhausted, Peking will be back to the critical moment similar to 1972: she either gives up challenging the international order and restores the “hide and bide” foreign policy, or she follows through — until her demise.

現實主義外交的資源耗盡之時，北京又會回到1972的決斷時刻，或放棄挑戰恢復韜光養晦，或者一不做二不休。