Afghanistan: a Non-existent Nation State | 不存在的国家
Afghanistan has no winning strategy whatsoever; she simply should not have existed as a nation in the first place. Feudal monarchs or invaders could have ruled the tribal chiefs or vassals of the Pashtuns, Tajiks and Uzbeks, but a self-ruling Afghanistan republic can only be en route to disintegration. For any quasi-organic community: unity can only be imposed; democracy inevitably leads to disintegration.
阿富汗沒有任何取勝策略，因為阿富汗本身就是一個不應該存在的國家。封建君主或征服者可以同時統治普什圖人、塔吉克人和烏茲別克人的酋長或領主，然而自我治理的阿富汗共和國只能是解體的中間環節。偽共同體的基本法則是：統一只能強制，民主必然解體。
If the Pushtun tribes and clans could establish their own independent and decentralised communities, they would have little incentive in allowing the Arab Jihadists to operate in their territories. But if a centralised Kabul fell into the hands of enemy tribes, it would present serious threats to the Pushtun communities. Under this circumstance, any responsible tribal chief would seek to control Kabul regardless of the disastrous consequences. What is key here is that quasi-organic communities hinder the formation of organic ones.
如果普什圖部落長老建立自己的共同體，他們就沒有任何動機允許阿拉伯聖戰者闌入，然而喀布爾如果落入敵對部族手中，就會對自己的共同體構成嚴重威脅。在這種情況下，任何負責任的長老都只能飲鴆止渴。偽共同體妨礙了真共同體的形成，才是問題的關鍵。
The nurturing of quasi-organic communities by the great powers harms the spontaneous development of organic communities; and the resultant political vacuum provides fertile ground for international terrorism. This explains the troubles with Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. Once the great powers decide to pull out, things will only get worse with the collapse of the quasi-organic communities.
列強扶植偽共同體，反而破壞了真正共同體的自然發育，由此造成的政治真空，為國際恐怖主義提供了良好的發育環境。阿富汗、伊拉克和巴基斯坦的問題都是這樣形成的。列強一旦厭倦和撤退，形勢就會隨著偽共同體的崩潰而更加惡化。
In the long term, it is more humane if the great powers let those inorganic communities disintegrate, so the natural ones can develop — under some pressure of self-protection — into their own nation states. If the Tajiks had the Kurds’ opportunities, Ahmad Shah Massoud would never have allowed the communists and terrorists to step into his native Panjshir valley. Perhaps the Europeans ought to reflect on how their own nation states first arose.
列強如果聽任這些偽共同體瓦解，讓天然共同體在自我保護的壓力下，生成自己的民族國家，從長遠看來會更加人道。塔吉克人如果得到庫爾德人的機會，馬蘇德絕不會允許共產分子和恐怖分子踏入潘傑希爾谷地。歐洲人應該想想，自己的民族國家是怎樣形成的。
